The recent visits of Myanmar’s professional-democracy chief Aung San Suu Kyi and Bangladesh’s leader of opposition Begum Khaleda Zia should be considered strategically. Despite Indian government’s red carpet welcome, the media and analyst usually missed the chance to showcase the very important roles of the 2 nations in undertaking India’s dream of a extra vitality secure future, and geopolitically a more stable neighborhood.
The possible tie-up between the three south-Asian nations (Myanmar, Bangladesh and India) might be considered as just one other political stunt by some strategy groups and safety analysts. Nonetheless, India’s new discovered standing as an rising market and political changes in these two nations present a a lot better platform than ever earlier than, of this being a actuality. Earlier than we check our optimism, let us evaluate some of the essential missed opportunities of the past.
Myanmar-Bangladesh- India (MBI) pipeline, a marvel in petroleum engineering, was one such important initiative which did not take off, after the initial discussions in early 2000s. India and Bangladesh could not come at a consensus, purportedly as a result of latter’s preconditions and the dialogue briefly ceased in 2005.
In subsequent years, after failed makes an attempt to find captive gas, Bangladesh became more flexible and a tri-social gathering settlement was in the end signed in 2010. However, Myanmar was nonetheless reluctant in implementing the mission since by then Chinese language-Myanmar partnership to provide gas and related oil, through two pipelines, from the Shwe Gas field, a structural wonder of petroleum engineering, had entered implementation phase.
In response to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), a centre for information technology, Myanmar currently produces approximately 420 bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas out of which greater than 300 bcf is exported. This miss comprehensively displays India’s challenges in multi-country natural gas pipeline tasks. One other misplaced alternative was New Delhi’s reluctant diplomacy with military regime in Myanmar.
The opportunity to import LNG from the Shwe subject was one more miss. In 2006 India’s GAIL misplaced out to South Korea’s KOGAS and Marubeni Japan on a preliminary bid for transporting LNG into India; later, nevertheless, the mission was indefinitely postponed most probably due to price involved and lack of a proximate LNG terminal.
Conduciveness of Present State of affairs
The current scenario calls for an enhanced Indian professional-energetic effort to interact with Bangladesh and Myanmar; there are greater than a handful causes for this being a positive time.
Firstly, US sanction on a half-century old Myanmar army rule ended with professional-democratic steps and gave strategy to a civilian nominated U Thein Sein government. Secondly, Bangladesh has a professional-India Awami League authorities, led by Sheikh Hasina, at the helm for final two years. Thirdly, when it comes to energy policy put up-2005, a realization has dawned upon the leaders of Bangladesh that the current natural gas reserves would be depleted soon and therefore there’s a need to search for choices.
Fourthly, chance & potential of gas imports on this region (from TAPI, IPI, Qatar, Australia, US, Japanese Africa & South America) have become comparatively clearer. Fifthly, China’s rising geopolitical muscle has now turn out to be evident and must be balanced (Turkmenistan – China Natural Gas pipeline & Trans Myanmar-China dual pipeline). Sixthly, Myanmar is also on the lookout for its place on the earth map as an emerging democracy which presupposes equal opportunities. Its forth coming public sale of O&G blocks to foreign explorers including India & upcoming Barack Obama’s go to to Myanmar would force its regime to have closer relationships with democracies and international players, particularly in its neighborhood.
The past couple of years have seen commendable traction on India-Bangladesh & India-Myanmar fronts; proper from Sheikh Hasina’s go to to New Delhi in Jan 2010 to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Could 2012 visit to Naypyidaw (capital of Myanmar).
Throughout the PM Singh’s visit 12 MOU have been signed for collaboration in a wide range of areas together with Infrastructure, Boarder Area Growth, Trade, Information Technology, Schooling, Culture and many others. Most important of them was extending a $ 500 million comfortable credit score & resolution to initiate steps to make the trilateral Asian Freeway (connecting Moreh in Manipur to Mae through xx to Sot in Thailand).
Indian entities want to maneuver rapidly and extra comprehensively to win licenses for Exploration and Production of virgin oil/gas fields in Myanmar. The cooperation in power was further resonated by President U Thein Sein’s appreciation of India endeavor the DPRs (detailed challenge report) of the Tamanthi and Shwezaye hydropower initiatives.
New prospects and perspectives
The chance is ripe as these countries have additionally realized that except they have an equally robust channel with India, they would not be capable to balance or leverage their interest in the long run.
A Myanmar-India pipeline would value around $2.5-3 billion, and attributable to its passage by way of the North Jap A part of India and associated growth, the advantages would actually out weight the prices. By creating a cross border pipeline undertaking with India, Myanmar will enjoy advantages akin to Employment, Faculties, Hospitals, Electricity grids, Clear water, and so on. which obtained developed in Myanmar as a result of as the China-Myanmar pipeline.
It has been discovered that transporting Gas by way of LNG tankers is extra economical as compared to onshore pipelines if the pipeline length is lower than 3800 kilometers – which is the size of the proposed Myanmar-India pipeline. Also, India is already in the process of growing re-gasification terminal and associated LNG import amenities, a few of that are on the Eastern coast (for instance floating LNG terminal off Kinetic Energy Refinery Equipment Andhra coast). In India, the cost of such a facility ranges from $ 650 million (Hazira) to $1 billion (Kochi). Hence, as a second option, India may additionally consider sponsoring growth of liquefaction terminal in Myanmar and import Gas as LNG to the east coast viably.
India could consider opening up its gates to Bangladesh for energy commerce. This has a number of indirect advantages of our NE states, similar to discovering a port for evacuation for its exports and potential for a port pipeline which can be used to ship crude by ship to Vizag and Chennai refineries in the east coast. Even a big re-gasification facility at Bangladesh can provide LNG to terminals which could be put up on East coast.
Despite tenable historic and political compulsion for arm’s size relation with Bangladesh and Myanmar, it is extremely important that India attempt for higher relations with the 2 countries for strengthening its vitality security. Certainly, power is in India’s yard!
This may even refocus India in the best way it offers with other troublesome neighbors like Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the tight rope it walks with its distant yet essential neighbor- Iran, for the purpose of a Sub continental power mutual interdependence.
The University of Petroleum Research (UPES) is a worldwide institute for finding out core engineering specializations equivalent to petroleum engineering, chemical engineering, robotics engineering, power techniques engineering, electronics engineering and aerospace engineering. The institute additionally gives management specializations resembling MBA in Oil and Gas and MBA in International Enterprise along with a faculty of legal studies.